Who is winning the Lok Sabha Elections 2024?
The 2024 general election results are eagerly awaited across the country, with the anticipation that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party are poised for another victory. The voter turnout, though slightly lower overall in comparison to the 2019 general elections, saw a remarkable increase in Jammu & Kashmir, indicating heightened political engagement in that region.
During the last five years, India has experienced significant advancements across various sectors under the leadership of PM Modi. Key areas of growth include:
Infrastructure: Major projects have been completed, improving connectivity and urban development.
Railways: The modernization of railways has been a focal point, with new trains, better services, and enhanced safety measures.
Defence: Strengthening national security, the government has increased defence spending, advanced indigenous manufacturing, and upgraded military capabilities.
Manufacturing & Aerospace: Initiatives like “Make in India” have bolstered the manufacturing sector and contributed to the growth of the aerospace industry.
The COVID-19 pandemic posed unprecedented challenges, but the government’s response, including vaccination drives and economic relief measures, helped mitigate the impact.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman played a crucial role in managing the economic fallout from the pandemic. Her efforts have included:
Maintaining a stable inflation rate.
Ensuring steady GDP growth.
Promoting digital financial transactions through the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), which has revolutionized the payment ecosystem in India.
The government’s focus on fiscal discipline and innovative financial policies has strengthened India’s economic resilience. As the nation awaits the election results, the achievements of the past five years provide a strong foundation for the future.
In the past five years, Indian Railways has seen significant modernization under PM Narendra Modi, with notable progress in infrastructure and safety. Electrification of 61,813 Route km, covering 94% of the Broad Gauge network, has been achieved, increasing from 1.42 km/day (2004-14) to 18 km/day (2022-23). Significant investments include ₹43,346 crore spent on electrification (2014-23) and ₹8,070 crore allocated for 2023-24. Key projects include 459 infrastructure projects costing ₹7.18 lakh crore. Safety enhancements feature the deployment of the Kavach system over 1,465 Route km and the introduction of Linke Hofmann Busch (LHB) coaches for better safety and comfort. Efforts to prevent train accidents have reduced annual incidents from 171 (2004-14) to 71 (2014-23). The Amrit Bharat Station scheme aims to redevelop 1,318 stations, focusing on passenger amenities and sustainability. The Rashtriya Rail Sanraksha Kosh (RRSK) has been extended to enhance safety with a budget of ₹1.45 lakh crore. Consequently, the average punctuality of trains has improved to 88.48%, and diesel consumption has decreased by 44.64% from 2018-19 to 2021-22.
Since assuming power in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has implemented extensive reforms under the ‘Make in India’ initiative and ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan’ to transform India from the world’s largest arms importer to a significant exporter of defence equipment. These measures aim to achieve a production target of INR 1,750 billion (US$26 billion) by 2025, with INR 350 billion (US$5 billion) in exports. The reforms span institutional, acquisition and industrial regulations, and budgetary provisions, leading to increased production turnover and defence exports, reaching INR 210.83 billion (US$2.63 billion) in 2023-24. The defence industry, including the public and private sectors, has shown notable progress despite challenges. The government’s continued support and policy initiatives are expected to further bolster indigenous capabilities and increase the share of domestic procurement significantly by 2028-29.
The 2024 general elections in India feature a significant contest between the two major political alliances: the I.N.D.I.A. (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Here’s a breakdown of the main parties within these alliances, their objectives and the key highlights from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) manifesto.
I.N.D.I.A. Alliance
The I.N.D.I.A. alliance consists of several key regional and national parties united to challenge the NDA. The primary members include:
- Indian National Congress (INC)
- Samajwadi Party (SP)
- Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)
- Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)
- Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction)
- Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) (Sharad Pawar faction)
- Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)
- Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)]
- Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)
- Communist Party of India (CPI)
- Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation
- Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (JKNC)
- Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP)
- Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK)
- All India Forward Bloc (AIFB)
- All India Trinamool Congress (AITC)
- Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP)
- Bharat Adivasi Party
- Indian Union Muslim League (IUML)
- Kongunadu Makkal Desia Katchi (KMDK)
- Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK)
- Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP)
- National Democratic Alliance (NDA)
The NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), includes various national and regional allies:
- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
- Telugu Desam Party (TDP)
- Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)]
- Shiv Sena (Shinde faction)
- Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)
- Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP (RV)]
- Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar faction)
- Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS)
- Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)]
- Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) [TMC(M)]
- Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK)
- Apna Dal (Soneylal)
- Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)
- Jana Sena Party (JSP)
- National People’s Party (NPP)
- Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)
- All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU)
- Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM)
- Naga People’s Front (NPF)
- Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP)
- Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM)
- Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP)
- Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP)
- United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL)
Alternative Parties
Some parties operate independently or have formed smaller coalitions, often focusing on specific regional or ideological goals:
- Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)]
- All India Trinamool Congress (AITC)
- All India Forward Bloc (AIFB)
- Bharat Adivasi Party
- Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP)
- Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP)
- Kerala Congress (M)
Opinion Polls and Vote Share Projections for the 2024 Indian General Election
Based on recent opinion polls, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) are the primary contenders in the 2024 Indian general elections.
Analysis
NDA’s Position: The NDA appears to be leading in most polls, with vote shares ranging from 41.8% to 52%. The highest lead observed is in the Times Now-ETG poll from March 2024, where the NDA is projected at 52% compared to I.N.D.I.A.’s 42%, with a 10% lead.
I.N.D.I.A. Alliance: The I.N.D.I.A. alliance is projected to secure vote shares between 27.7% and 42%. They are competitive but generally trail the NDA by a few percentage points in most polls. The closest margin is seen in the Times Now-ETG poll from October 2023, with the NDA at 42.6% and I.N.D.I.A. at 40.2%, only a 2.4% difference.
Others: The vote share for other parties ranges significantly, from as low as 6% to as high as 29.6%, indicating a substantial presence of regional and independent players in the election.
Trends
Consistent Lead for NDA: The NDA maintains a consistent lead over the I.N.D.I.A. alliance across various polls, although the margin varies.
Regional Variations: The performance of alliances can vary significantly by region, influencing overall national projections.
Impact of ‘Others’: The substantial vote share for other parties underscores the fragmented nature of Indian politics and the importance of regional dynamics.
These projections suggest a favourable outlook for the NDA. Still, the competitive performance of the I.N.D.I.A. alliance and the significant presence of other parties highlight the complexity and unpredictable nature of the Indian electoral landscape.
